Shut Up And Listen 213

Fucked But Don't Know It

Interesting times in Canadian politics. We have the Government (aka the Liberals) dead in the water after damning testimony that they are completely and hopelessly corrupt in relation to the ad scandal. We're talking envelopes stuffed with hundreds of thousands of dollars corrupt here. They'll most likely pay for it too. Paul Martin has freely admitted that his party and government are at the hands of the opposition with regards to an election. This makes Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservatives quite pleased. He's just got his eye on that Prime Minister title and it is so damn close he can taste it. It's actually quite sad, because there's a good chance he will get it, but it will be completely meaningless.

The Conservative Party of Canada is thoroughly fucked, but it doesn't know it. You see, right now, it thinks it has the Liberals right where it wants them: second in the polls and falling. That is misleading. Oh sure, the testimony at the Gomery inquiry is pretty damning against the Liberals, but it's not damning enough. First off, the Tories won't be able to push for an election until after the full results of the inquiry are in. The Canadian public while seeming to barely support the Tories over the Liberals (the difference between the two is anywhere from 1% to 8% or so in various polls) don't want an election until the results are in. It's smart not wanting to pass judgement based on just one testimony. This is a gamble for the Tories, as the results of the inquiry could find members of the Liberals guilty, but they could also be former members who are no longer tied to the party today. Oh, the guilt will still get passed along, but not quite as much.

We will end up with Jean Chrétien taking the fall and Paul Martin doing his best not to laugh out loud on national TV. Oh, he will cite their adversarial relationship, but also play up their comradeship. "Poor Jean," he will say looking very remorseful and compassionate. "He was like a second father to me, but we had our disagreements. We had our arguments and our falling out. I loved the man, but I am not him. He was corrupt and criminal, and I am not. Sure, I'm going to do everything in my power to ensure he doesn't go to prison, but . . ." Wait, that last part is all wrong. Prime Ministers and former Prime Ministers can go to jail. What do we care?

But say the Tories do push for an election and it goes in their favour, the best they can really hope for is a minority government, and that is where they will be fucked. Stephen Harper will be Prime Minister, but his party and government will be ineffective and weak. The current power structure is that the Liberals and NDP have an alliance, of sorts, while the Tories and Bloc Québécois have one as well. It's generally equal with the NDP sometimes going against the government as it is a party of principles with the Tories then picking up the slack because they don't want to be the party that broke the government just yet. But say the Tories were at the top of the minority government pile, what would the make-up look like? There would be the Tories on one side and everyone else on the other. The Liberals would oppose them obviously, the NDP and the Tories have nothing in common beyond thinking the Liberals suck, and the Bloc Québécois can't support the Government because it's a separatist party. That means the Tories would literally be a minority government.

The best the Tories can hope for is that the results come back that the Liberals are totally corrupt, Paul Martin was in on the whole thing and that criminal charges will be made. Of course, that means Canada will be totally fucked and boy, oh boy, will we know it.